It is Tuesday morning, March 10, 2026. Marcus runs a small HVAC business in Tulsa. He drives a diesel truck. He also holds $18,000 in crypto — split between Bitcoin and XRP — money he's been building for two years. He checks his phone. Bitcoin is at $66,500 — down from $93,000 in January. He doesn't understand why.

Nobody has explained to Marcus that a strait he's never heard of — the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman — carries one-fifth of the world's oil. Nobody told him that when US and Israeli aircraft struck Iranian military installations two Saturdays ago, Iran's Revolutionary Guard began blocking tanker traffic. Nobody connected those events to the diesel price on his fuel receipt, the inflation number the Fed is watching, or the risk-off signal that has institutional money sitting on the sidelines instead of flowing into crypto.

The fog of war: Without intelligence, Marcus sees price movement as noise. His reaction: wait, worry, consider selling. The real signal — a geopolitical chokepoint event triggering a predictable macro cascade — is invisible to him.

The HAVOC intervention: The Claver Domino Tracker put the Strait of Hormuz domino at 9/10 CRITICAL on March 7. The alert section of that week's brief stated the threshold: if WTI crude breaches $100, expect crypto fear index to drop below 20 and institutional buying to pause. It did. The brief also noted that ceasefire probability was at 61% by March 31 per prediction markets. That's the other half of the signal — when oil pulls back, risk assets recover.

Decision point: Marcus with HAVOC intel knows this isn't a crypto crisis. It's an oil crisis temporarily wearing a crypto mask. He holds, watches the ceasefire signals, and has a price target for re-entry rather than a panic exit.